UNC Charlotte Public Policy: 2005

Thursday, December 08, 2005

The Latest NBER Research (2005-12-05)

1. Well-Being, Social Capital and Public Policy: What's New?
by John Helliwell #11807 (LS)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11807

2. Searching for Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage
by Leora Friedberg, Michael T. Owyang, Tara M. Sinclair #11808 (AG LS)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11808

3. Who Benefits from New Medical Technologies? Estimates of Consumer and Producer Surpluses for HIV/AIDS Drugs
by Tomas J. Philipson, Anupam B. Jena #11810 (HC PR)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11810

4. Aching to Retire? The Rise in the Full Retirement Age and its Impact on the Disability Rolls
by Mark Duggan, Perry Singleton, Jae Song #11811 (AG HE PE)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11811

5. How Much is Too Much? The Influence of Preschool Centers on Children's Social and Cognitive Development
by Susanna Loeb, Margaret Bridges, Bruce Fuller, Russ Rumberger #11812 (CH ED)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11812

6. Racial Sorting and Neighborhood Quality
by Patrick Bayer, Robert McMillan #11813 (ED)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11813

7. Salary or Benefits?
by Paul Oyer #11817 (LE LS)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11817

8. Medical Expenditure Risk and Household Portfolio Choice
by Dana Goldman, Nicole Maestas #11818 (AG HC)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11818

9. The Welfare Effects of Restricted Hospital Choice in the US Medical Care Market
by Katherine Ho #11819 (HC)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11819

10. Insurer-Provider Networks in the Medical Care Market
by Katherine Ho #11822 (HE)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11822

11. Surviving Andersonville: The Benefits of Social Networks in POW Camps
by Dora L. Costa, Matthew E. Kahn #11825 (DAE)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11825

12. Modeling the Offshoring of White-Collar Services: From Comparative Advantage to the New Theories of Trade and FDI
by James Markusen #11827 (ITI LS)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11827

13. The Effect of Firm-Level Contracts on the Structure of Wages: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data
by David Card, Sara de la Rica #11829 (LS)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11829

14. Would the FairTax Raise or Lower Marginal and Average Tax Rates
by Laurence J. Kotlikoff, David Rapson #11831 (PE)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11831

15. Universal Childcare, Maternal Labor Supply, and Family Well-Being
by Michael Baker, Jonathan Gruber, Kevin Milligan #11832 (CH PE)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11832

Monday, October 17, 2005

Announcing Call for Most Esoteric Academic Titles

We're reading so many journal articles with titles that can underwhelm both with their lack of creativity and use of the requisite colon, that I thought it'd be fun to collect some of the most arcane titles. When you need a break from studying, go ahead and add your own nominees to this post.

I'll start with this gem from the latest issue of Critical Social Policy:

It is only a tradition: making sense of Swedish Somalis' narratives of female circumcision and avoiding submission to hegemonic political discourse
     Sara Johnsdotter and Birgitta Essen
     Critical Social Policy 2005;25 577-589
    http://csp.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/25/4/577?etoc.


Can you top that?

Research Resources for Public Policy Think Tanks

For those working on the Public Policy Seminar assignment for this week, you can find financial data on your think tank at http://www.guidestar.org. You have to create a user account (hassle-free) and then you can see information about your think tank. There's useful financial data in the section for IRS Docs. You're looking for the 990 forms in which they disclose their revenue, expenditures, salaries, etc to the IRS each year. Might be of some help.

Also, a friend of mine, has just published a book on the influence of think tanks on public policy. He's constructed several models (complete with r-squareds) for assessing the ideological bent of the think tanks, their visibility and their influence on policy. I've checked the book out of the library, and would be happy to lend it to anyone who's interested.

The citation for the book follows:

Rich, Andrew. Think Tanks, Public Policy, and the Politics of Expertise. Cambridge, UK ; New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004.

Friday, October 14, 2005

Study Groups Today! (10-14)

Hi everyone! There will be study groups in room 123 of the library today (Friday, October 14) for next week's Quant and Econ midterms.

12-2pm : Quantitative Methods

2-4pm : Econ I

To get to Room 123, walk all the way back to the "blue area" on the walk-in level of the library. Take a left and follow the hall around to Room 123.

Depending on what people decide today, we may also do it again next Tuesday.

Have a good one!

Saturday, October 08, 2005

October Articles from American Journal of Political Science

REVIEWERS Volume 49
American Journal of Political Science (ISSN: 0092-5853); Volume 49, No. 4, pp. v-xii(1); October 2005
Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
The Mobilization of Core Supporters: Campaigns, Turnout, and Electoral Composition in United States Presidential Elections
Holbrook, Thomas M.; McClurg, Scott D.
American Journal of Political Science (ISSN: 0092-5853); Volume 49, No. 4, pp. 689-703(15); October 2005
Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
Globalization and the Strengthening of Democracy in the Developing World
Rudra, Nita
American Journal of Political Science (ISSN: 0092-5853); Volume 49, No. 4, pp. 704-730(27); October 2005
Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
Policy Preference Formation in Legislative Politics: Structures, Actors, and Focal Points
Ringe, Nils
American Journal of Political Science (ISSN: 0092-5853); Volume 49, No. 4, pp. 731-745(15); October 2005
Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
Assessing the Electoral Connection: Evidence from the Early United States
Carson, Jamie L.; Engstrom, Erik J.
American Journal of Political Science (ISSN: 0092-5853); Volume 49, No. 4, pp. 746-757(12); October 2005
Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
Structural Choices and Representational Biases: The Post-Election Color of Representation
Meier, Kenneth J.; Juenke, Eric Gonzalez; Wrinkle, Robert D.; Polinard, J. L.
American Journal of Political Science (ISSN: 0092-5853); Volume 49, No. 4, pp. 758-768(11); October 2005
Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
Territory, Contiguity, and International Conflict: Assessing a New Joint Explanation
Senese, Paul D.
American Journal of Political Science (ISSN: 0092-5853); Volume 49, No. 4, pp. 769-779(11); October 2005
Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
Government Partisanship, Elections, and the Stock Market: Examining American and British Stock Returns, 1930-2000
Leblang, David; Mukherjee, Bumba
American Journal of Political Science (ISSN: 0092-5853); Volume 49, No. 4, pp. 780-802(23); October 2005
Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
Priming Gender: Campaigning on Women's Issues in U.S. Senate Elections
Schaffner, Brian F.
American Journal of Political Science (ISSN: 0092-5853); Volume 49, No. 4, pp. 803-817(15); October 2005
Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
Rousseau's Politic Argument in the Discourse on the Sciences and Arts
Campbell, Sally Howard; Scott, John T.
American Journal of Political Science (ISSN: 0092-5853); Volume 49, No. 4, pp. 818-828(11); October 2005
Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
Women Ministers in Latin American Government: When, Where, and Why?
Escobar-Lemmon, Maria; Taylor-Robinson, Michelle M.
American Journal of Political Science (ISSN: 0092-5853); Volume 49, No. 4, pp. 829-844(16); October 2005
Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
The Indirect Effects of Discredited Stereotypes in Judgments of Jewish Leaders
Berinsky, Adam J.; Mendelberg, Tali
American Journal of Political Science (ISSN: 0092-5853); Volume 49, No. 4, pp. 845-864(20); October 2005
Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
Political Choice, Public Policy, and Distributional Outcomes
Kelly, Nathan J.
American Journal of Political Science (ISSN: 0092-5853); Volume 49, No. 4, pp. 865-880(16); October 2005
Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
Party Identification and Core Political Values
Goren, Paul
American Journal of Political Science (ISSN: 0092-5853); Volume 49, No. 4, pp. 881-896(16); October 2005
Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
Political Institutions and Economic Performance: The Effects of Accountability and Obstacles to Policy Change
Hicken, Allen; Satyanath, Shanker; Sergenti, Ernest
American Journal of Political Science (ISSN: 0092-5853); Volume 49, No. 4, pp. 897-907(11); October 2005
Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
Candidate Qualities through a Partisan Lens: A Theory of Trait Ownership
Hayes, Danny
American Journal of Political Science (ISSN: 0092-5853); Volume 49, No. 4, pp. 908-923(16); October 2005
Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
Who Wants to Globalize? Consumer Tastes and Labor Markets in a Theory of Trade Policy Beliefs
Baker, Andy
American Journal of Political Science (ISSN: 0092-5853); Volume 49, No. 4, pp. 924-938(15); October 2005
Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
INDEX Volume 49

American Journal of Political Science (ISSN: 0092-5853); Volume 49, No. 4, pp. 939-940(2); October 2005
Blackwell Publishing, Inc.

Search millions of articles, access thousands of full-text scholarly and
professional publications, and find answers to your specific research needs
at www.ingentaconnect.com.

Friday, October 07, 2005

Latest Policy-Related Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research

Some of the following papers from NBER may be of interest to you. Abstracts follow the short list.

THE LATEST WORKING PAPERS
National Bureau of Economic Research
Week of October 3, 2005

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deficits and Debt in the Short and Long Run
by Benjamin M. Friedman #11630 (EFG ME PE)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11630

Employment Dynamics and Business Relocation: New Evidence from the National Establishment Time Series
by David Neumark, Junfu Zhang, Brandon Wall #11647 (LS)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11647

Entry and Competition in Local Hospital Markets
by Jean M. Abraham, Martin S. Gaynor, William B. Vogt #11649 (HC IO)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11649

Is It Is or Is It Ain't My Obligation? Regional Debt in a Fiscal Federation
by Russell Cooper, Hubert Kempf, Dan Peled #11655 (EFG PE)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11655

What Undermines Aid's Impact on Growth?
by Raghuram G. Rajan, Arvind Subramanian #11657 (IFM PE)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11657

How Unobservable Productivity Biases the Value of a Statistical Life
by Thomas J. Kniesner, W. Kip Viscusi, Christopher Woock, James P. Ziliak #11659 (HE LE PE)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11659

Teachers and the Gender Gaps in Student Achievement
by Thomas S. Dee #11660 (CH ED)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11660

Hospital Ownership and Financial Performance: A Quantitative Research Review
by Yu-Chu Shen, Karen Eggleston, Joseph Lau, Christopher Schmid #11662 (HC)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11662

Religious Extremism: The Good, The Bad, and The Deadly
by Eli Berman, Laurence R. Iannaccone #11663 (LS)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11663

Media Bias and Reputation
by Matthew Gentzkow, Jesse Shapiro #11664 (LS PE)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11664

Tax Reform and Environmental Taxation
by Gilbert E. Metcalf #11665 (PE)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11665

The Effect of Joint and Several Liability Under Superfund on Brownfields
by Howard F. Chang, Hilary Sigman #11667 (LE PE)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11667

Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China
by Hans Fehr, Sabine Jokisch, Laurence J. Kotlikoff #11668 (EFG IFM ITI)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11668

Expanding School Enrollment by Subsidizing Private Schools: Lessons from Bogota
by Claudia Uribe, Richard J. Murnane, John B. Willett, Marie Andree Somers #11670 (ED)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11670

Rethinking the Gains from Immigration: Theory and Evidence from the U.S.
by Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, Giovanni Peri #11672 (ITI LS)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11672

Estimation and Identification of Merger Effects: An Application to Hospital Mergers
by Leemore S. Dafny #11673 (HC IO)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11673

Minorities and Storable Votes
by Alessandra Casella, Thomas Palfrey, Raymond Riezman #11674 (ME PE)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11674

Fractional Treatment Rules for Social Diversification of Indivisible Private Risks
by Charles F. Manski #11675 (PE)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11675

Health Risk, Income, and the Purchase of Private Health Insurance
by M. Kate Bundorf, Bradley Herring, Mark Pauly #11677 (HC PE)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11677

Job Loss, Job Finding, and Unemployment in the U.S. Economy Over the Past Fifty Years
by Robert E. Hall #11678 (EFG LS)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11678

Saving Incentives for Low- and Middle-Income Families: Evidence from a Field Experiment with H&R Block
by Esther Duflo, William Gale, Jeffrey Liebman, Peter Orszag, Emmanuel Saez #11680 (PE)
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11680

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Deficits and Debt in the Short and Long Run
by Benjamin M. Friedman - #11630 (EFG ME PE)

Abstract:

This paper begins by examining the persistence of movements
in the U.S. Government's budget posture. Deficits display
considerable persistence, and debt levels (relative to GDP) even more
so. Further, the degree of persistence depends on what gives rise to
budget deficits in the first place. Deficits resulting from shocks
to defense spending exhibit the greatest persistence and those from
shocks to nondefense spending the least; deficits resulting from
shocks to revenues fall in the middle.
The paper next reviews recent evidence on the impact of
changes in government debt levels (again, relative to GDP) on
interest rates. The recent literature, focusing on expected future
debt levels and expected real interest rates, indicates impacts that
are large in the context of actual movements in debt levels: for
example, an increase of 94 basis points due to the rise in the
debt-to-GDP ratio during 1981-93, and a decline of 65 basis point due
to the decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio during 1993-2001.
The paper next asks why deficits would exhibit the observed
negative correlation with key elements of investment. One answer,
following the analysis presented earlier, is that deficits are
persistent and therefore lead to changes in expected future debt
levels, which in turn affect real interest rates. A different
reason, however, revolves around the need for markets to absorb the
increased issuance of Government securities in a setting of costly
portfolio adjustment.
The paper concludes with some reflections on "the Perverse
Corollary of Stein's Law": that is, the view that in the presence of
large government deficits nothing need be done because something will
be done.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11630

Employment Dynamics and Business Relocation: New Evidence from
the National Establishment Time Series
by David Neumark, Junfu Zhang, Brandon Wall - #11647 (LS)

Abstract:

We analyze and assess new evidence on employment dynamics from a new
data source -- the National Establishment Time Series (NETS). The
NETS offers advantages over existing data sources for studying
employment dynamics, including tracking business establishment
relocations that can contribute to job creation or destruction on a
regional level. Our primary purpose in this paper is to assess the
reliability of the NETS data along a number of dimensions, and we
conclude that it is a reliable data source although not without
limitations. We also illustrate the usefulness of the NETS data by
reporting, for California, a full decomposition of employment change
into its six constituent processes, including job creation and
destruction stemming from business relocation, which has figured
prominently in policy debates but on which there has been no
systematic evidence.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11647

Entry and Competition in Local Hospital Markets
by Jean M. Abraham, Martin S. Gaynor, William B. Vogt - #11649 (HC IO)

Abstract:

There has been considerable consolidation in the hospital industry in
recent years. Over 900 deals occurred from 1994-2000, and many local
markets, even in large urban areas, have been reduced to monopolies,
duopolies, or triopolies. This surge in consolidation has led to
concern about competition in local markets for hospital services. We
examine the effect of market structure on competition in local
hospital markets -- specifically, does the hardness of competition
increase with the number of firms? We extend the entry model
developed by Bresnahan and Reiss to make use of quantity information,
and apply it to data on the U.S. hospital industry. In the hospital
markets we examine, entry leads to a quick convergence to competitive
conduct. Entry reduces variable profits and increases quantity. Most
of the effects of entry come from having a second and a third firm
enter the market. The fourth entrant has little estimated effect. The
use of quantity information allows us to infer that entry is
consumer-surplus-increasing.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11649

Is It Is or Is It Ain't My Obligation? Regional Debt in a Fiscal
Federation
by Russell Cooper, Hubert Kempf, Dan Peled - #11655 (EFG PE)

Abstract:

This paper studies the repayment of regional debt in a multi-region
economy with a central authority: who pays the obligation issued by a
region? With commitment, a central government will use its taxation
power to smooth distortionary taxes across regions. Absent
commitment, the central government may be induced to bailout the
regional government in order to smooth consumption and distortionary
taxes across the regions. We characterize the conditions under which
bailouts occur and their welfare implications. The gains to creating
a federation are higher when the (government spending) shocks across
regions are negatively correlated and volatile. We use these insights
to comment on actual fiscal relations in three quite different
federations: the US, the European Union and Argentina.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11655

What Undermines Aid's Impact on Growth?
by Raghuram G. Rajan, Arvind Subramanian - #11657 (IFM PE)

Abstract:

We examine one of the most important and intriguing puzzles in
economics: why it is so hard to find a robust effect of aid on the
long-term growth of poor countries, even those with good policies. We
look for a possible offset to the beneficial effects of aid, using a
methodology that exploits both cross-country and within-country
variation. We find that aid inflows have systematic adverse effects
on a country's competitiveness, as reflected in a decline in the
share of labor intensive and tradable industries in the manufacturing
sector. We find evidence suggesting that these effects stem from the
real exchange rate overvaluation caused by aid inflows. By contrast,
private-to-private flows like remittances do not seem to create these
adverse effects. We offer an explanation why and conclude with a
discussion of the policy implications of these findings.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11657

How Unobservable Productivity Biases the Value of a Statistical
Life
by Thomas J. Kniesner, W. Kip Viscusi, Christopher Woock, James P. Ziliak - #11659 (HE LE PE)

Abstract:

A prominent theoretical controversy in the compensating differentials
literature concerns unobservable individual productivity. Competing
models yield opposite predictions depending on whether the
unobservable productivity is safety-related skill or productivity
generally. Using five panel waves and several new measures of worker
fatality risks, first-difference estimates imply that omitting
individual heterogeneity leads to overestimates of the value of
statistical life, consistent with the latent safety-related skill
interpretation. Risk measures with less measurement error raise the
value of statistical life, the net effect being that estimates from
the static model range from $5.3 million to $6.7 million, with
dynamic model estimates somewhat higher.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11659

10. Teachers and the Gender Gaps in Student Achievement
by Thomas S. Dee - #11660 (CH ED)

Abstract:

In the United States, girls outperform boys in measures of reading
achievement while generally underperforming in science and
mathematics. One major class of explanations for these gaps involves
the gender-based interactions between students and teachers (e.g.,
role-model and Pygmalion effects). However, the evidence on whether
these interactions actually matter is limited and contradictory. In
this study, I present new empirical evidence on whether assignment to
a same-gender teacher influences student achievement, teacher
perceptions of student performance, and student engagement. This
study's identification strategy exploits a unique "matched pairs"
feature of a major longitudinal survey. Within-student comparisons
based on these data indicate that assignment to a same-gender teacher
significantly improves the achievement of both girls and boys as well
as teacher perceptions of student performance and student engagement
with the teacher's subject. For example, assignment to a female
science teacher increases the likelihood that a girl views science as
useful for her future. However, because the middle-school teachers in
most academic subjects are female, these results also suggest that
the gender dynamics between teachers and students at this level
amplify boys' large underperformance in reading while attenuating the
more modest underperformance of girls in math and science.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11660

Hospital Ownership and Financial Performance: A Quantitative
Research Review
by Yu-Chu Shen, Karen Eggleston, Joseph Lau, Christopher Schmid - #11662 (HC)

Abstract:

We apply meta-analytic methods to conduct a quantitative review of
the empirical literature since 1990 comparing financial performance
of US for-profit, not-for-profit, and government-owned general acute
hospitals. We find that the diverse results in the hospital ownership
literature can be explained largely by differences in authors'
underlying theoretical frameworks, assumptions about the functional
form of the dependent variables, and model specifications. Weaker
methods and functional forms tend to predict larger differences in
financial performance between not-for-profits and for-profits. The
combined estimates across studies suggest little difference in cost
among all three types of hospital ownership, and that for-profit
hospitals generate more revenue and greater profits than
not-for-profit hospitals, although the difference is only of modest
economic significance. There is little difference in revenue or
profits between government and not-for-profit hospitals.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11662

Religious Extremism: The Good, The Bad, and The Deadly
by Eli Berman, Laurence R. Iannaccone - #11663 (LS)

Abstract:

This paper challenges conventional views of violent religious
extremism, particularly those that emphasize militant theology. We
offer an alternative analysis that helps explain the persistent
demand for religion, the different types of religious that naturally
arise, and the special attributes of the "sectarian" type. Sects are
adept at producing club goods both spiritual and material. Where
governments and economies function poorly, sects often become major
suppliers of social services, political action, and coercive force.
Their success as providers is much more due to the advantages of
their organizational structure than it is to their theology.
Religious militancy is most effectively controlled through a
combination of policies that raise the direct costs of violence,
foster religious competition, improve social services, and encourage
private enterprise.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11663

Media Bias and Reputation
by Matthew Gentzkow, Jesse Shapiro - #11664 (LS PE)

Abstract:

A Bayesian consumer who is uncertain about the quality of an
information source will infer that the source is of higher quality
when its reports conform to the consumer's prior expectations. We use
this fact to build a model of media bias in which firms slant their
reports toward the prior beliefs of their customers in order to build
a reputation for quality. Bias emerges in our model even though it
can make all market participants worse off. The model predicts that
bias will be less severe when consumers receive independent evidence
on the true state of the world, and that competition between
independently owned news outlets can reduce bias. We present a
variety of empirical evidence consistent with these predictions.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11664

Tax Reform and Environmental Taxation
by Gilbert E. Metcalf - #11665 (PE)

Abstract:

I measure the industry impacts of an environmental tax reform where a
carbon tax is used to finance full or partial corporate tax
integration. I find that the industry impacts of such a reform are
likely to be modest (in the sense of impacts on returns on equity).

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11665

The Effect of Joint and Several Liability Under Superfund on Brownfields
by Howard F. Chang, Hilary Sigman - #11667 (LE PE)

Abstract:

In response to claims that the threat of Superfund liability deters
the acquisition of potentially contaminated sites or "brownfields"
for redevelopment, the federal government and the states have enacted
laws or adopted programs to protect purchasers from liability. This
protection may be unwarranted, however, if sellers can simply adjust
the price of contaminated property downward to compensate buyers for
the liabilities associated with the property. We present a formal
model of joint and several liability under Superfund that allows us
to distinguish four different reasons that Superfund liability may
discourage the purchase of contaminated property despite the tendency
for land prices to reflect the expected transfer of liability to the
buyer. The previous literature has overlooked the four effects that
we identify, which all arise because a sale may increase the number
of defendants in a suit to recover cleanup costs. First, a sale may
increase the share of liability that a seller and a buyer may expect
to pay as a group. Second, a sale may increase the amount of damages
that the government can expect to recover from the defendants at
trial. Third, a sale may increase the total litigation costs that a
buyer and a seller may face as a group. Fourth, game theory suggests
that a sale may increase the amount that the government can expect to
extract from defendants in a settlement.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11667

Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating
the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China
by Hans Fehr, Sabine Jokisch, Laurence J. Kotlikoff - #11668 (EFG IFM ITI)

Abstract:

This paper develops a dynamic, life-cycle, general equilibrium model
to study the interdependent demographic, fiscal, and economic
transition paths of China, Japan, the U.S., and the EU. Each of these
countries/regions is entering a period of rapid and significant aging
requiring major fiscal adjustments.
In previous studies that excluded China we predicted that tax hikes
needed to pay benefits along the developed world's demographic
transition would lead to capital shortage, reducing real wages per
unit of human capital. Adding China to the model dramatically alters
this prediction. Even though China is aging rapidly, its saving
behavior, growth rate, and fiscal policies are very different from
those of developed countries. If this continues to be the case, the
model's long run looks much brighter.
China eventually becomes the world's saver and, thereby, the
developed world's savoir with respect to its long-run supply of
capital and long-run general equilibrium prospects. And, rather than
seeing the real wage per unit of human capital fall, the West and
Japan see it rise by one fifth by 2030 and by three fifths by 2100.
These wage increases are over and above those associated with
technical progress.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11668

Expanding School Enrollment by Subsidizing Private Schools:
Lessons from Bogota
by Claudia Uribe, Richard J. Murnane, John B. Willett, Marie Andree Somers - #11670 (ED)

Abstract:

Many countries use tax revenues to subsidize private schools. Whether
these policies meet social objectives depends, in part, on the
relative quality of education provided by the two types of schools.
We use data on elementary school students and their teachers in
Bogota, Colombia to examine difference in resource mixes and
differences in the relative effectiveness of public and private
schools. We find that, on average, the schools in the two sectors are
equally effective. However, they produce education using very
different resource combinations. Moreover, there are large
differences in the effectiveness of schools in both sectors,
especially in the private sector. The results of our analysis shed
light on the quantity-quality tradeoff that governments in many
developing countries face in deciding how to use scarce educational
resources.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11670

Rethinking the Gains from Immigration: Theory and Evidence from
the U.S.
by Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, Giovanni Peri - #11672 (ITI LS)

Abstract:

Recent influential empirical work has emphasized the negative impact
immigrants have on the wages of U.S.-born workers, arguing that
immigration harms less educated American workers in particular and
all U.S.-born workers in general. Because U.S. and foreign born
workers belong to different skill groups that are imperfectly
substitutable, one needs to articulate a production function that
aggregates different types of labor (and accounts for complementarity
and substitution effects) in order to calculate the various effects
of immigrant labor on U.S.-born labor. We introduce such a production
function, making the crucial assumption that U.S. and foreign-born
workers with similar education and experience levels may nevertheless
be imperfectly substitutable, and allowing for endogenous capital
accumulation. This function successfully accounts for the negative
impact of the relative skill levels of immigrants on the relative
wages of U.S. workers. However, contrary to the findings of previous
literature, overall immigration generates a large positive effect on
the average wages of U.S.-born workers. We show evidence of this
positive effect by estimating the impact of immigration on both
average wages and housing values across U.S. metropolitan areas
(1970-2000). We also reproduce this positive effect by simulating the
behavior of average wages and housing prices in an open city-economy,
with optimizing U.S.-born agents who respond to an inflow of
foreign-born workers of the size and composition comparable to the
immigration of the 1990s.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11672

Estimation and Identification of Merger Effects: An Application to Hospital Mergers
by Leemore S. Dafny - #11673 (HC IO)

Abstract:

Advances in structural demand estimation have substantially improved
economists' ability to forecast the impact of mergers. However, these
models rely on extensive assumptions about consumer choice and firm
objectives, and ultimately observational methods are needed to test
their validity. Observational studies, in turn, suffer from selection
problems arising from the fact that merging entities differ from
non-merging entities in unobserved ways. To obtain an accurate
estimate of the ex-post effect of consummated mergers, I propose a
combination of rival analysis and instrumental variables. By focusing
on the effect of merger on the behavior of rival firms, and
instrumenting for these mergers, unbiased estimates of the effect of
merger on market outcomes can be obtained. Using this methodology, I
evaluate the impact of all independent hospital mergers between 1989
and 1996 on rivals' prices. I find sharp increases in rival prices
following merger, with the greatest effect on the closest rivals. The
results for this industry are more consistent with predictions from
structural models than with prior observational estimates.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11673

Minorities and Storable Votes
by Alessandra Casella, Thomas Palfrey, Raymond Riezman - #11674 (ME PE)

Abstract:

The paper studies a simple voting system that has the potential to
increase the power of minorities without sacrificing aggregate
efficiency. Storable votes grant each voter a stock of votes to spend
as desidered over a series of binary decisions. By cumulating votes
on issues that it deems most important, the minority can win
occasionally. But because the majority typically can outvote it, the
minority wins only of its strength of preferences is high and the
majority's strength of preferences is low. The result is that
aggregate efficiency either falls little or in fact rises. The
theoretical predictions are confirmed by a series of experiments: the
frequency of minority victories, the relative payoff of the minority
versus the majority, and the aggregate payoffs all match the theory.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11674

Fractional Treatment Rules for Social Diversification of
Indivisible Private Risks
by Charles F. Manski - #11675 (PE)

Abstract:

Should a social planner treat observationally identical persons
identically? This paper shows that uniform treatment is not
necessarily desirable when a planner has only partial knowledge of
treatment response. Then there may be reason to implement a
fractional treatment rule, with positive fractions of the
observationally identical persons receiving different treatments. The
planning problems studied here share some important features:
treatment is individualistic, social welfare is a strictly increasing
function of a population mean outcome, and outcomes depend on an
unknown state of nature. They differ in the information that the
planner has about the state of nature and in how he uses this
information to make treatment choices. In particular, I compare
treatment choice using Bayes rules and the minimax-regret criterion.
Following the analysis, I put aside the literal notion of a planner
who makes decisions on behalf of society and consider the feasibility
of implementing fractional treatment rules in functioning
democracies.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11675

Health Risk, Income, and the Purchase of Private Health
Insurance
by M. Kate Bundorf, Bradley Herring, Mark Pauly - #11677 (HC PE)

Abstract:

While many believe that an individual's health plays an important
role in both their willingness and ability to obtain health
insurance, relatively little agreement exists on how and why health
status is likely to affect coverage rates, particularly for
individuals purchasing coverage in the individual market. In this
paper, we examine the relationship between health risk and the
purchase of private health insurance and whether that relationship
differs between people purchasing coverage in the individual and
large group markets and between low and high income individuals. The
data source for our analysis is the panel component of the 1996-2002
Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). We find that health risk is
positively associated with obtaining private health insurance
coverage. The positive relationship between health risk and coverage
is stronger for individuals obtaining coverage in the large group
market than for individuals obtaining coverage in the individual
market. In the large group market, rates of coverage increase more
quickly with health risk for low than high income individuals. We
conclude that high premiums for high risks are not a significant
contributor to the large uninsured population in the U.S. Among low
income individuals, high premiums may represent a barrier to low
risks in the large group market.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11677

Job Loss, Job Finding, and Unemployment in the U.S. Economy
Over the Past Fifty Years
by Robert E. Hall - #11678 (EFG LS)

Abstract:

New data compel a new view of events in the labor market during a
recession. Unemployment rises almost entirely because jobs become
harder to find. Recessions involve little increase in the flow of
workers out of jobs. Another important finding from new data is that
a large fraction of workers departing jobs move to new jobs without
intervening unemployment. I develop estimates of separation rates and
job-finding rates for the past 50 years, using historical data
informed by detailed recent data. The separation rate is nearly
constant while the job-finding rate shows high volatility at
business-cycle and lower frequencies. I review modern theories of
fluctuations in the job-finding rate. The challenge to these theories
is to identify mechanisms in the labor market that amplify small
changes in driving forces into fluctuations in the job-finding rate
of the high magnitude actually observed. In the standard theory
developed over the past two decades, the wage moves to offset driving
forces and the predicted magnitude of changes in the job-finding rate
is tiny. New models overcome this property by invoking a new form of
sticky wages or by introducing information and other frictions into
the employment relationship.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11678

Saving Incentives for Low- and Middle-Income Families: Evidence
from a Field Experiment with H&R Block
by Esther Duflo, William Gale, Jeffrey Liebman, Peter Orszag, Emmanuel Saez - #11680 (PE)

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the effects of a large randomized field
experiment carried out with H&R Block, offering matching incentives
for IRA contributions at the time of tax preparation. About 14,000
H&R Block clients, across 60 offices in predominantly low- and
middle-income neighborhoods in St. Louis, were randomly offered a 20
percent match on IRA contributions, a 50 percent match, or no match
(the control group). The evaluation generates two main findings.
First, higher match rates significantly raise IRA participation and
contributions. Take-up rates were 3 percent for the control group, 8
percent in the 20 percent match group, and 14 percent in the 50
percent match group. Average IRA contributions (including
non-contributors, excluding the match) for the 20 percent and 50
percent match groups were 4 and 7 times higher than in the control
group, respectively. Second, several additional findings are
inconsistent with the full information, rational-saver model. In
particular, we find much more modest effects on take-up and amounts
contributed from the existing Saver's Credit, which provides an
effective match for retirement saving contributions through the tax
code; we suspect that the differences may reflect the complexity of
the Saver's Credit as enacted, and the way in which its effective
match is presented. Taken together, our results suggest that the
combination of a clear and understandable match for saving, easily
accessible savings vehicles, the opportunity to use part of an income
tax refund to save, and professional assistance could generate a
significant increase in contributions to retirement accounts,
including among middle- and low-income households.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W11680

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Study Groups

Hi everyone! Let's use this section to post requests for study groups or post open study group information. If you are posting a group that has already been organized, please put subject, date, time and place in your posting.

Thursday, October 06, 2005

What are Your Research Interests?

It would be great to get a feel for the range of dissertation topics our students are pursuing. If you can spare a moment from writing (or thinking about writing), please let us know what you're working on.

Bibliographic Software

A number of people have been asking about the bibliographic software available today that helps you maintain your own databases of journal articles, books, websites, etc., for easy insertion in research papers. The programs offer ways to download citations for articles directly from online databases, such as those accessible through the library's homepage. Additionally, you can reformat the style of your bibliographies from MLA to APA, for example, with one click. Perhaps, most helpfully, many of the bibliographic software packages offer templates to use for writing articles for particular academic journals. Perhaps some of you who already use this software will post your own recommendations. In the meantime, here are some links to learn more about a few of the most popular programs:

Endnote
Biblioscape
Procite
RefWorks
Reference Manager

Endnote, Procite and Reference Manager are owned by the same company.
Most of the programs have 30-day trial versions that you can download for free test drives.
If you decide you like one of them, you may be able to get academic pricing for them through the Campus E-Store.

Welcome to the UNC Charlotte PPOL Blog

Nearly everyone I've talked to who has completed Ph.D. work cites the conversations they had with other students and faculty outside of class as one of the most important aspects of their Ph.D. work. While our different office locations and the diversity of our research interests can hinder our coming together to share ideas, perhaps this blog, in conjunction with the PPOL webpage maintained by Olga, could be one small part of what several of us hope can be an ongoing conversation about ideas, research interests, articles and books--you know, the stuff we get excited about and few others do.

We hope that you will use the blog to:

Share ideas, articles or books of interest to you with other members of the department.
Vet ideas for research projects.
Pass along useful tips, resources or links that you think would be of interest to other students and/or faculty in the department.
Post notices of conferences, speeches and other events that might be of interest to the rest of us.

If you decide never to post anything, but just check in from time to time, that's just fine. As with most things, some of us will be more into it than others. We hope, however, you'll at least "try it on."

Now, let the posting begin.

UNC Charlotte Public Policy